Monday, November 2, 2009

Bought Canadian Utilities @ $38.55

It you believe that slow and steady wins the race, then you'll like Canadian Utilities (CU.TO, CDUAF.PK). Most of its operations in Alberta. About a year ago, I calculated that about 70% of its revenues were either regulated or under long-term power generation contracts. Its current dividend is $1.41 CDN, and its TTM earnings are $3.18 CDN, for a coverage ratio of 2.25. So, the dividend is safe. Also, its revenues don't depend much on consumer discretionary spending, of which I expect there to be less and less.

  • Unlike Fortis, or Brookfield Asset Management, CU doesn't have any commercial real estate holdings.
  • the expected yield based on this price is 3.65%
  • the present value of a $100 investment is $149.38, with a discount rate of 3.5%. (Still, you have to take this with a grain of salt. I think general economic growth will be a lot lower in the future.)
  • Its valuation is pretty good, as shown below in this graph from TD Waterhouse.

Over the last 10 years...
  • CU's ROE has hovered around 15%, despite being a utility
  • Its balance sheet has been conservative
    • Leverage around 3 (good for a utility) (and currently 2.4)
    • a current ratio between 2 and 3 (and currently 3.4!)
  • It has not had a negative cash flow year
  • It's a Canadian dividend aristocrat
  • A real widows and orphans stock
Wait a few days before buying because the ex-dividend date is November 5.

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