Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Why Invest at All?

My last post was all doom and gloom. So the question arises as to why invest at all? Why not just stay in cash? There are two answers:

1- Because the stock market is a leading indicator. In the past, it has gone up before economic recoveries. Indeed, both the TSX and s&P500 are up a bit more than 30% since their March low. If it sticks, the markets would have again risen before the recovery.

2- By buying stocks with a good yield, I benefit from that yield even though I'm hedging. For example, if I buy XYZ at 100, yielding 5%, and it goes up to 150, my hedge will wipe out that capital appreciation. But I'm still getting 5%. Had I waited until the stock was at 150 before buying, the yield would only be 3%. If my hedge works perfectly, I'm ahead by buying early and hedging.

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